Why Donald Trump Achieved a Major Step in the Middle East Yet Faces Challenges With Putin Over Ukraine
Accounts of an impending American-Russian leadership meeting have been overstated, it seems.
Just days after President Trump announced he intended to confer with Russia's leader Putin in Budapest - "in approximately a fortnight" - the high-level talks has been suspended indefinitely.
A preliminary meeting by the two nations' leading diplomats has been called off, too.
"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," President Trump informed the press at the executive mansion on a recent weekday. "I don't want a waste of time, so I'll see what transpires."
- Trump says he wished to avoid a 'wasted meeting' after arrangement for negotiations with Putin postponed
- Letdown in Ukraine's capital as Zelensky leaves White House empty-handed
The on-again, off-again meeting is another development in the president's efforts to mediate an conclusion to war in Ukraine – a subject of renewed focus for the US president after he orchestrated a ceasefire and prisoner exchange deal in the Palestinian territory.
During a speech in Egypt recently to celebrate that ceasefire agreement, Trump turned to his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a new request.
"We have to get Russia resolved," he declared.
Nonetheless, the conditions that aligned to make a Gaza breakthrough achievable for the negotiation team may be difficult to replicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been raging for almost several years.
Reduced Influence
According to Witkoff, the key to unlocking a agreement was Israel's move to strike representatives of Hamas in the Gulf state. It was a move that angered America's Arab allies but provided Trump bargaining power to compel Israel's leader Benjamin Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
The US president benefited from a history of siding with Israel since his initial presidency, including his decision to move the American embassy to the contested city, to alter US policy on the lawfulness of Jewish communities in the West Bank and, in recent times, his backing for Israeli defense operations against Iran.
The American leader, actually, is more popular among Israelis than their prime minister – a position that provided him with special sway over the Israeli leader.
Add in the president's connections in politics and business to influential Arab nations in the region, and he had a wealth of negotiating strength to force an agreement.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, by contrast, Trump has significantly reduced leverage. Over the past nine months, he has swung between efforts to pressure Putin and then Zelensky, all with little seeming effect.
The US leader has threatened to impose additional penalties on Russian energy exports and to supply Ukraine with advanced missile systems. But he has also recognised that doing so could disrupt the global economy and intensify the war.
Meanwhile, the US leader has criticized openly Zelensky, halting briefly intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and pausing weapon deliveries to the nation - only to then retreat in the face of worried European partners who warn a defeat of Ukraine could destabilise the entire region.
Trump loves to tout his ability to sit down and negotiate deals, but his face-to-face meetings with both Putin and Zelensky have not appeared to move the war any closer to a peaceful end.
Putin may in fact be using Trump's desire for a deal – and belief in direct negotiations - as a means of manipulating him.
In July, Russia's leader consented to a high-level meeting in the US state just as it appeared likely that Trump would sign off on congressional sanctions package backed by GOP senators. That bill was subsequently put on hold.
Last week, as news emerged that the US administration was seriously contemplating sending long-range missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Kyiv, the president of Russia phoned the US president who then promoted the possible meeting in Budapest.
The following day, Trump welcomed Zelensky at the executive residence, but departed empty-handed after a reportedly tense meeting.
Trump insisted that he was not being manipulated by the Russian president.
"You know, I've been played throughout my career by skilled operators, and I emerged really well," he said.
However the president of Ukraine later made note of the sequence of events.
"Once the issue of advanced weaponry became a less accessible for us – for Ukraine – the Russian side quickly became less interested in diplomacy," he said.
Thus, in a short period, Trump has bounced from entertaining the prospect of providing weapons to Ukraine to planning a meeting in Hungary with Russia's leader and privately pressuring the Ukrainian president to cede the entire Donbas region – even territory Russian forces has been failed to capture.
He has finally decided on calling for a truce along present frontlines – a proposal the Russian government has refused to accept.
On the campaign trail last year, the candidate vowed that he could end the conflict in Ukraine in a very short time. He has since discarded that commitment, admitting that concluding the hostilities is proving harder than he anticipated.
It has been a uncommon admission of the limits of his authority – and the difficulty of finding a framework for peace when both parties desires, or can afford to, give up the fight.