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Initially, the former US president seemed to adopt a firm position on Ukraine. Following issuing statements of "serious ramifications" during the summer in case Vladimir Putin continued obstructing ceasefire negotiations, the former president eventually introduced major restrictions on the Russian primary petroleum corporations, Rosneft and Lukoil. This move substantially affected Putin's ability to fund his military invasion in the region.

However, through his latest comprehensive peace proposal for the conflict, reportedly drafted by US and Russian representatives excluding Ukraine's or European input, Trump has seemingly returned to his favorable to Russia position.

Favoring Invasion

The former president's proposal would essentially benefit Putin for attacking Ukraine while putting Ukraine's political freedom in peril. Despite bold declarations that "Ukraine's sovereignty will be upheld", significant aspects of the initiative in reality weaken that same sovereignty. This constitutes a Moscow's wish would likely be a catastrophe for the nation.

Reflecting his corporate experience, the former president continues to treat the Ukrainian conflict as a mere territorial dispute, as if ceding Russia a section of Ukrainian land will please the president. But, Putin's military campaign is not simply about dominating a damaged swath of deindustrialized territory in the Donbas region. Rather, it is about the nation's democratic governance – and Putin's obvious goal to eliminate it so it no longer functions as an appealing model for the Russian people of the democratic governance that his deepening dictatorship denies them.

Territorial Surrenders

While maintaining in position the already divided oblasts of these areas, Trump's initiative would require Ukraine to abandon the whole this eastern territory. In addition to benefiting the Russian Federation with area that its troops have been unsuccessful to seize in exceeding a lengthy period of warfare, this surrender would make Ukrainian defenses critically compromised.

The area is the place of the nation's highly-touted "defensive line", the well-established military defenses that constitute a essential barrier to enemy progress. The proposal would have the Ukrainian military abandon these defenses, giving Putin a clear way to the capital if he subsequently opt to resume the war.

Defense Restrictions

Then, in a step that would facilitate renewed conflict simpler for Russia, Trump would mandate Ukraine to diminish the numbers of its military from their current approximately 800,000 troops to a limit of six hundred thousand. Significantly, Trump's plan imposes no equivalent restrictions on Russian forces.

Apparently as a gesture to Russia's efforts to depict Ukraine's legitimate leadership as Nazis, Trump's plan declares: "Every Nazi ideology and activities must be condemned and prohibited." As if to underscore this point, it demands that "The nation will hold democratic votes in 100 days" of a peace deal. At the same time, Trump places no condition that Putin risk his regime by conducting democratic processes in Russia.

Defense Assurances

Admittedly, the plan includes Russia commit not to "invade bordering nations" and to "establish in law its policy of non-violence towards European nations and the Ukrainian people". However considering that the Russian leadership has violated similar accords in the history – such as the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which the Russian government pledged to respect Ukraine's sovereignty in return for relinquishing its former Soviet nuclear weapons, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Russia agreed to a truce and a return of captured land in eastern Ukraine to Ukrainian control – why should the international community have confidence in this commitment this time?

This explains Ukraine has been so adamant on external security guarantees. While the initiative threatens a "immediate coordinated defense action" in case the Russian Federation resume its military campaign, and includes that "The nation will receive reliable protection assurances", the details include fuzzy to concerning. The initiative would not only block Ukraine accession to NATO but also preclude alliance nations from deploying troops on Ukrainian territory, thereby precluding the peacekeeping contingent, presumptively commanded by European powers, on which the Ukrainian government had been relying to prevent Putin from replenishing his diminished troops, rearming, and attacking again.

International Concern

An additional parallel deal reportedly would offer Ukraine with a Nato-style security guarantee, in which any future "significant, planned, and continuous military assault" by the Russian Federation on Ukraine "would be considered as an attack threatening the peace and security of the transatlantic community." That suggests a defense action. But unlike a capable Ukrainian military – the nation's primary deterrent against additional Russian aggression – the success of the supplementary deal would depend on the willingness of Western powers, such as Trump, to respond through arms to Putin's aggression, an action they have {not