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Well. On one hand, the nation's protracted bid to host the Cop31 next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

It campaigned for over 36 months for the rights to put on the world's biggest climate summit and sustainable business expo, which would have brought tens of thousands of people to the city of Adelaide next fall.

That's not happening. Rather, the summit known as Cop31 is headed to the resort city of the Turkish coastal city, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Letdown and Conflicting Signals

This outcome will be a major let down to numerous individuals who had hoped organizing the environmental gathering could help accelerate the country's transition from being a carbon-based economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring international focus to the existential plight facing Pacific island nations, who would have been joint hosts.

The process that resulted in defeat has been an opaque mess. In recent days, there have been doubts that Anthony Albanese and other high-ranking officials truly desired the proposal to be approved. The prime minister's language were ambiguous at best. It translated to stories in the Australian and international media saying the administration was walking away.

This differed from the message being relayed at the climate negotiations in the city of Belem, where the environment minister, Chris Bowen, had just stated the country was "fully committed to success".

Uncertain support is not a new issue for Australia's Cop31 bid. Although Bowen championed it, other senior members of the administration have only occasionally appeared to care.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, usually in charge for international climate negotiations, has been disengaged and at times completely against.

Evidence suggests Albanese has viewed international climate meetings a priority. He hasn't attended one since becoming prime minister in 2022. We'll never know, but some will wonder if more could have been done to secure the hosting rights.

An Alternative View

That's the negative take. But there is another way to consider it.

In the context the Cop30 talks this week in Brazil – and from an international perspective – the decision on Wednesday night may, ironically, have been the most favorable outcome available.

Bowen set out on that day an unprecedented deal that he was developing with his Turkish counterpart, the Turkish minister. Turkey would be the Cop president, organizer and primary coordinator, and Australia – the climate minister – would take on the position as "chief negotiator", wrangling nearly 200 countries on the matters that the nations actually attend for – the talks on how to collectively combat the environmental emergency.

There would also be a increased emphasis on the Pacific region, including a preliminary meeting on an island nation.

Grounds for Scepticism

Multiple reasons exist for scepticism. Turkey and Australia do not have a close relationship. Specific aspects of the agreement had not been finalized at the moment of announcement. The whole thing could collapse before it gets started.

However, it might represent a way to recover value from what appeared to be an approaching car crash for the international cooperation on global warming.

The Turkish government is widely seen in the global community as having been determined on causing havoc in the UN climate process. This framework is designed to operate by consensus. Typically, that means if there are several nations in the competition those with weaker backing either bow out voluntarily, or a compromise is quietly done to persuade them to exit the race.

The Turkish bid clearly had weaker endorsement than Australia and Pacific islands to organize the summit. Approximately 24 of the 28 countries responsible for nominating next year's venue had supported the southern pitch.

But, uniquely, Turkey refused to yield. The term "bastardry" has been thrown around in the past week, and not only by Australians.

Geopolitical Context

Turkey's obstinacy can be interpreted as a reflection of the divided international landscape. With the US absent under Donald Trump, there has been no major power with the influence to confront the oil producers that offered the Turks with some cover.

President Erdoğan is seen as aligned with Vladimir Putin. Several nations feared a summit obstructed from the leadership if his government led the negotiations. Germany did not want to have to organize an unprepared Cop31 at the UN climate headquarters in the German city, which is what would have occurred under international regulations if the stalemate wasn't broken.

An Innovative Approach

A resolution was necessary. International frameworks is flawed and often unsettling to observe, but multilateral action has empirically had an impact in the fight against climate change. This joint approach is a innovative solution that maintains progress when it is needed more than ever.

Notwithstanding reasonable concerns of the federal administration over its hypocritical support for expanding fossil fuel exports, climate activists who participate in international meetings see Bowen as a force for good in the negotiations. He has been requested to co-chair negotiation streams at each of the four conferences he has attended.

This is significant. While certain critics have downplayed the role of a "chief negotiator", specialists from research centers and experienced analysts at environmental negotiations say it is crucial to their positive outcome.

"Every successful Cop has been shaped by a leader directing proceedings who can understand, forge agreement and deliver an ambitious outcome. This occurred in the German capital in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. The reverse happened in the Danish city in 2009," they note. "This position is critical at the conference except for making sure that people have food."

Unanswered Questions

Multiple unanswered questions. As an illustration, non-governmental organizations is essential at environmental summits. What, if at all, can the federal administration do to prevent a restriction on NGO participation by the Turkish leadership?

Perhaps not much. But that doesn't stop this arrangement looking like the best chance possible to have a summit that may offer something for the Pacific region, Australia and the global community. It's worth a try.