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Voting has commenced for general elections in Holland, with recent surveys indicating that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again win the most seats, though experts suggest the party stands little chance of being part of the future coalition.

Polling Trends and Election Dynamics

The PVV, which previously pulled off a surprise first-place finish and established a multi-party all-conservative coalition that collapsed within a year, is now slightly leading in the polls and is forecast to win between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-member house of representatives.

However, the far-right party's support has dipped since the previous election, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, and who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in the summer over a dispute concerning his radical anti-refugee plans.

Major Parties and Projections

Following a election period dominated by issues such as immigration, medical expenses, and the country's severe housing crisis, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, expected to gain between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, projected to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is anticipated to more than double its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the Freedom Party, VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with several experiencing significant declines.

Electoral System and Political Division

In the proportional Dutch system, gaining just less than one percent of the vote earns a party one MP. Among the 27 parties contesting the election – including senior-focused parties, youth parties, for animals, basic income advocates, and for sport – up to 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This significant division ensures that no one party is expected to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by multi-party governments – typically composed of four parties in recent governments – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the his party becomes the biggest group yet is excluded from government. However, critics and analysts argue that winning the most seats does not guarantee government participation and that any coalition with a majority is democratically valid.

While the election result is hard to predict and coalition talks may require several months, analysts suggest that following the most extreme government in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a inclusive coalition headed by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, opened at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable post-voting survey is expected soon after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will test potential governing alliances that could command a majority in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must undergo a confidence vote in the house before assuming power.