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Two days remaining.

The English side's first Test in Australia starts on the morning of Friday.

With the help of cricket statistics experts, we examine where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be determined.

It's tough to score runs, right?

Batters on each side of the Ashes rivalry might be questioning why they are bothering to show up.

A lot of the pre-series discussion has focused on the apparent difficulty of scoring runs, particularly for the opening match on a Perth pitch described as a "green monster".

When it comes to playing in Australian conditions, especially against fast bowling, no country has been harder in which to score runs over the past five years.

There are two reasons for this: wickets and balls.

Taken as a collective, the pitches produced in Australia have been shown to be the fastest, highest bouncing and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Speed and variable bounce are the ideal combination for tough batting.

A common belief from England's cricketing circles describes the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a fast bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, leading to increased seam movement.

Seam is a much bigger weapon than swing in Australian conditions.

After the new ball's introduction, fast bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about solving problems.

When the ball is on top, batsmen's contributions can be the deciding factor, and the reverse is true.

Should this series be dominated by the ball, a batter could have the chance to be the key factor between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australian pace attack?

For once, England have toured Australia with their pace attack largely intact, while the home side are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Captain Pat Cummins will miss at least the first Test with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unspecified time because of a hamstring injury.

Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first united as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 Ashes.

From that point, they have taken together 81% of the dismissals taken by Australia pace bowlers in home Tests.

The Australian team have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the effectiveness and durability of the 'leading trio'.

On the occasions Australia have needed a back-up, Boland has been sensational, taking 62 wickets in 14 matches at an average under 17.

In addition to Boland, other bowlers of the backup squad have performed well.

Michael Neser, Richardson and Pattinson all average below 30 in domestic Tests.

The last time Australia went into a home Test without both key bowlers, and lost, was in the year 2012.

On the last two occasions they have competed in Australia without the duo, they have triumphed by a combined 694 runs, including a victory against England in Adelaide four years ago.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to look beyond their star fast bowlers, outcomes have not been affected – England should pay attention.

Challenging Openings

Recall the time England struggled to identify an opening batsman to partner Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef changed partners faster than Watford change coaches.

Not anymore.

Ever since Duckett and Crawley were paired at the top of the England order at the close of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has produced more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a partnership has been a factor in Zak Crawley being supported through some patchy form.

The Kent man, who famously struck the initial delivery of the last Ashes series for four, has also been recognized as having the game for Australia.

His batting average rises when the bowling gets faster.

In comparison, the Australian opening lineup is in a constant state of flux, still seeking to fill the gap left by David Warner.

Following Warner's retirement at the beginning of 2024, Khawaja has walked out with five various openers in 15 Tests.

Uncapped Jake Weatherald looks set to become the sixth opener in 16 Tests on Friday, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening pair.

It is not just the opening pair that has posed issues for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was moved to open for the World Test Championship final, then left out completely.

Domestic form has brought him back, probably returning to number three.

Across seven matches in the current year, Australia's top three have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have done worse.

Spin war

Between two closely matched sides, there is one area where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin bowling.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, all 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spinners to ever play.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a somewhat successful selection punt, looking short of form after a finger injury, while Will Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It makes sense for the home team to want Nathan Lyon at the front, but bowling spin has been extremely challenging in Australia for the last decade.

In that time, slow bowlers have averaged almost 44 in this country, albeit Lyon's record holds up well compared to the difficulties of overseas spinners.

Lyon's other issue is actually bowling enough overs.

Remember the effectiveness of pace bowling?

It limits Lyon's time with the ball.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Nathan Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five matches against the Indian team, it was half that number.

Tests in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the updated ball was brought in, meaning the spinner has fewer opportunities to make an impact.

Right place, right time?

The English team have a unfortunate tendency of being beaten in an overseas Ashes before Father Christmas has loaded his sleigh.

Traditionally, the series began in the Gabba, where they have not won since the year 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed by a day-night Test in Adelaide.

The visitors have a single victory in seven day-night matches worldwide, while the hosts have won 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a city England have played at on 14 occasions since 1970 and won only one time, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the initial three venues on the itinerary are the identical, only in a rearranged order and under altered conditions.

The Perth Test stages an Ashes opener for the first time, not at the famous Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It is still a difficult task, though one the tourists tackle with no past burdens.

Brisbane is the location for the second match, the day-nighter.

The last time Australia competed in a pink-ball Test at the Gabba, they were stunned by West Indies.

Likewise, the Australians are now unaccustomed to playing daytime Tests at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide Oval.

In the two red-ball matches played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia lost one, to India, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a fresh attempt at beginning an overseas series positively, albeit with pitfalls.

The home side have secured victory in four out of five matches played at the new Perth ground, though the single loss came in the latest game – against India last year.

Each match at the new ground has been claimed by the team setting a target.

The English often complicate day-night matches, when statistics suggest the pink cricket ball does not behave very differently from its red counterpart.

The challenge in {day-night matches|